A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
